The Vulnerability Gap: How people affected by climate change perceive their circumstances and make (risky) migration decisions

Abstract

Climate change has disproportionate effects on the most disadvantaged communities and households, but the ways in which individuals and households respond to extreme weather events is not yet fully clear. This paper uses the adaptive preferences framework to better understand decision-making processes among individuals and households struggling to cope with the effects of extreme weather events. Drawing on 755 household surveys and 74 qualitative engagements, it argues that, as climate change limits livelihood options, individuals and households make conscious decisions to undertake risky migration. Climate limits current earnings, pushes households to sell productive assets, and erodes community infrastructure; in doing so, it constrains individual and household well-being. In response to these increasing limitations, individuals and households consciously accept the risks associated with migration journeys to access potential short- and long-term benefits. Specific groups, including women, face potentially more damaging adaptive preferences due to pre-existing structural and cultural barriers such as lower literacy and levels of documentation. While government investments to support climate adaptation are partially successful, they do not fully reach the most vulnerable populations. Government actors must develop a better understanding of the choices faced by disadvantaged households, and create flexible risk mitigation measures on long-term initiatives that are already trusted by communities. The paper concludes that adoption of the adaptive preferences framework by policymakers can improve the effectiveness of programmes designed to support climate adaptation and reduce vulnerability.